{ "schema_version": "agent-v2-configuration-v1", "model_edition": "agent-v2.0-candidate", "scope": { "scientific_question": "Under explicitly uncertain hardware, market, communication, and entrant conditions, can independently stateful actors keep a minority proof-of-work fork live while control remains distributed and recovers after bounded shocks?", "positive_hypothesis": "Unbundling template, job-gateway, share-accounting, payout, broadcast, and validation authority, together with accessible hardware entry and costly coalition commitments, can produce a recoverable distributed-control empirical regime in some declared worlds.", "positive_center": "Find the conditions under which the full constructive bundle works, and map where payout dependence, weak commitments, slow supply, low service support, or an ordinary strategic entrant makes it fail or reverse.", "primary_contrast_id": "positive-bundle", "countercase_goal": "Preserve every world in which role separation is nominal, concentration moves to another control surface, liveness falls, or recovery fails.", "excluded_claims": [ "adoption probability", "winner score", "coin price forecast", "launch legitimacy", "real-world replicate frequency", "mathematical equilibrium proof" ] }, "authorities": { "parameter_classes": { "protocol-defined": "Copied from a named protocol specification or pinned implementation and not inferred from outcomes.", "measured": "Admissible only with a dated evidence edge, unit, transform, uncertainty, and holdout status; none are calibrated here.", "elicited": "Admissible only with respondent class, protocol, date, and uncertainty; none are elicited here.", "stipulated-range": "A declared synthetic design range that cannot be read as a frequency or forecast.", "intervention": "A causal feature deliberately changed between paired worlds and never an outcome assignment." }, "source_locks": [ { "path": "evidence/mechanisms.json", "sha256": "76dcde040392585129f654057c4701bc3533b3933d0a02fa03fc9b0307893b2f", "role": "six-family mechanism hypothesis authority" }, { "path": "evidence/dispositions.json", "sha256": "de69ee86defe804022a2fc4f4c3be8f136c8361f249405865fe9803ac81c8f0c", "role": "normalization and calibration-boundary authority" }, { "path": "evidence/normalized/decentralization-mechanisms.jsonl", "sha256": "d621b5126075ceef6bc5842db026be01dc98393429d200eaa189beacd0a867f6", "role": "deterministic normalized mechanism view" }, { "path": "evidence/manifest.json", "sha256": "56507c7913594345dc4280103d038995815da442023e4746f6410c6ac46a9076", "role": "captured artifact and evidence-edge authority" }, { "path": "evidence/source-inventory.json", "sha256": "31dc4e1d3a6ebc700dddee8b26e0fa89479c94a180295e76b6ff5813aad6b488", "role": "source-set boundary" }, { "path": "story/observations/2026-08-13-bip110.json", "sha256": "835175b10f1d04b04b00f16cad366558ff8d2afe17a8cce94c5fabbb8a1ac8f1", "role": "locked retrospective BIP-110 challenge observation" } ] }, "units": { "probability_ppm": { "scale": 1000000, "base_unit": "one", "representation": "signed-int64", "rounding": "round-half-to-even", "signedness": "nonnegative" }, "share_ppm": { "scale": 1000000, "base_unit": "one", "representation": "signed-int64", "rounding": "round-half-to-even", "signedness": "nonnegative" }, "hhi_ppm": { "scale": 1000000, "base_unit": "one", "representation": "signed-int64", "rounding": "round-half-to-even", "signedness": "nonnegative" }, "money_mcredit": { "scale": 1000000, "base_unit": "model-credit", "representation": "signed-int64", "rounding": "round-half-to-even", "signedness": "signed" }, "capacity_mwork": { "scale": 1000000, "base_unit": "eligible-work-per-second", "representation": "signed-int64", "rounding": "floor-for-protocol-work", "signedness": "nonnegative" }, "time_seconds": { "scale": 1, "base_unit": "second", "representation": "signed-int64", "rounding": "exact", "signedness": "nonnegative" }, "satoshi": { "scale": 1, "base_unit": "satoshi", "representation": "signed-int64", "rounding": "protocol-floor", "signedness": "nonnegative" } }, "protocol": { "authority": "protocol-defined", "target_spacing_seconds": 600, "block_subsidy_satoshi": 312500000, "coinbase_maturity_blocks": 100, "block_weight_limit_weight_units": 4000000, "initial_difficulty_work_units": 4295032833, "difficulty_adjustment_profile": "bitcoin-2016-block-bounded-retarget-control" }, "initial_condition_rules": { "authority": "intervention", "initial_difficulty_work_units": 4295032833, "pair_initial_difficulty_equal": true, "normalize_initial_eligible_capacity": false, "transition_capacity_loss_is_intervention": true, "eligible_capacity_rule_code": 1, "eligible_capacity_rounding_code": 1, "retarget_interval_blocks": 2016, "retarget_min_timespan_ratio": { "num": 1, "den": 4 }, "retarget_max_timespan_ratio": { "num": 4, "den": 1 } }, "timeline": { "id": "730-day-finite", "authority": "stipulated-range", "time_quantum_seconds": 60, "horizon_days": 730, "base_decision_cadence_seconds": 21600, "burn_in_days": 90, "measurement_windows": [ { "id": "pre-supply-shock", "start_day": 90, "end_day": 270 }, { "id": "post-first-pulse-recovery", "start_day": 360, "end_day": 450 }, { "id": "post-second-pulse-recovery", "start_day": 540, "end_day": 730 } ], "perturbations": [ { "id": "accessible-hardware-supply-pulse", "code": 1, "duration_days": 14, "kind": "remove-eligible-new-supply-share", "magnitude": { "num": 2, "den": 5 }, "behavior_profile": { "affected_hardware_class_mask": 4, "unallocated_vendor_inventory_only": true, "semantic_lot_order_code": 1, "count_rounding_code": 2, "restore_after_duration": true }, "authority": "intervention" }, { "id": "top-beneficial-owner-removal-pulse", "code": 2, "duration_days": 30, "kind": "remove-top-owner-active-capacity", "magnitude_axis": "top_owner_removal_share_ppm", "behavior_profile": { "owner_ranking_metric_code": 1, "owner_tie_break_code": 1, "lot_order_code": 1, "target_rounding_code": 1, "whole_lot_stop_code": 1, "restore_after_duration": true }, "authority": "intervention" } ], "perturbation_slots": [ { "slot_code": 1, "start_day": 270 }, { "slot_code": 2, "start_day": 450 } ], "recovery_deadline_days": 90 }, "continuation_paths": { "forward": { "profile_code": 1, "pulse_order_codes": [ 1, 2 ] }, "reverse": { "profile_code": 2, "pulse_order_codes": [ 2, 1 ] } }, "execution_bounds": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "max_decision_epochs": 5840, "max_events": 4000000, "max_queue_cardinality": 262144, "max_messages": 1000000, "max_orders": 500000, "max_hardware_lots": 8192, "max_checkpoint_bytes": 4294967296, "max_message_fanout": 256, "max_delivery_retries": 3, "event_family_caps": { "decision": 900000, "block-and-propagation": 250000, "communication-and-coalition": 1000000, "market-and-hardware": 500000, "relationship-transition": 450000, "validation-payout-and-service": 750000 }, "queue_caps": { "message-delivery": 65536, "block-propagation": 32768, "market-orders": 32768, "hardware-delivery": 16384, "relationship-proposals": 16384, "validation-and-reorg": 32768 }, "terminal_states": [ "completed", "absorbed", "failed", "aborted", "unresolved" ] }, "population": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "root_actor_categories_per_scale": { "hash-owner-organizations": 6, "facility-specialists": 2, "pool-service-organizations": 2, "economic-services": 2, "validator-only-organizations": 2, "hardware-vendors": 1, "communication-relays": 1 }, "resolution_ladder": [ "s01", "s02", "s04", "s08", "s16" ], "capability_counts_per_scale": [ { "id": "s01", "multiplier": 1, "ordinary_root_actors": 16, "strategic_entrants": 1, "total_root_actors": 17, "roles": { "hardware-owners": 7, "facilities": 3, "pool-coordinators": 3, "job-gateways": 4, "template-authors": 7, "share-accountants": 3, "payout-custodians": 3, "broadcasters": 5, "validating-upstreams": 11, "economic-services": 2, "hardware-vendors": 1 }, "initial_hardware_lots": 24 }, { "id": "s02", "multiplier": 2, "ordinary_root_actors": 32, "strategic_entrants": 1, "total_root_actors": 33, "roles": { "hardware-owners": 13, "facilities": 6, "pool-coordinators": 6, "job-gateways": 8, "template-authors": 14, "share-accountants": 6, "payout-custodians": 6, "broadcasters": 10, "validating-upstreams": 21, "economic-services": 4, "hardware-vendors": 2 }, "initial_hardware_lots": 48 }, { "id": "s04", "multiplier": 4, "ordinary_root_actors": 64, "strategic_entrants": 1, "total_root_actors": 65, "roles": { "hardware-owners": 25, "facilities": 12, "pool-coordinators": 12, "job-gateways": 16, "template-authors": 28, "share-accountants": 12, "payout-custodians": 12, "broadcasters": 20, "validating-upstreams": 41, "economic-services": 8, "hardware-vendors": 4 }, "initial_hardware_lots": 96 }, { "id": "s08", "multiplier": 8, "ordinary_root_actors": 128, "strategic_entrants": 1, "total_root_actors": 129, "roles": { "hardware-owners": 49, "facilities": 24, "pool-coordinators": 24, "job-gateways": 32, "template-authors": 56, "share-accountants": 24, "payout-custodians": 24, "broadcasters": 40, "validating-upstreams": 81, "economic-services": 16, "hardware-vendors": 8 }, "initial_hardware_lots": 192 }, { "id": "s16", "multiplier": 16, "ordinary_root_actors": 256, "strategic_entrants": 1, "total_root_actors": 257, "roles": { "hardware-owners": 97, "facilities": 48, "pool-coordinators": 48, "job-gateways": 64, "template-authors": 112, "share-accountants": 48, "payout-custodians": 48, "broadcasters": 80, "validating-upstreams": 161, "economic-services": 32, "hardware-vendors": 16 }, "initial_hardware_lots": 384 } ], "overlap_classes": { "vertically-integrated-hash-owners-per-scale": 1, "hosted-independent-hash-owners-per-scale": 2, "household-hash-owners-per-scale": 2, "lease-dependent-hash-owners-per-scale": 1, "strategic-entrant-rule": "one additional root actor with no initial lot, the same public offers, the same delivery graph, and only its declared cash budget" }, "hardware_lot_distribution": { "mature-asic-incumbent": { "hardware_class_code": 1, "initial_lots_per_scale": 8, "vendor_inventory_lots_per_scale": 0, "vendor_restock_lots_per_scale": 0, "first_vendor_restock_day": 730, "vendor_restock_interval_days": 90, "capacity_mwork_per_lot": 1000000, "acquisition_cost_mcredit": 1200000, "operating_cost_mcredit_per_day": 40000, "lead_time_days": 45, "useful_life_days": 730 }, "mature-asic-resale": { "hardware_class_code": 2, "initial_lots_per_scale": 8, "vendor_inventory_lots_per_scale": 8, "vendor_restock_lots_per_scale": 2, "first_vendor_restock_day": 90, "vendor_restock_interval_days": 90, "capacity_mwork_per_lot": 650000, "acquisition_cost_mcredit": 600000, "operating_cost_mcredit_per_day": 52000, "lead_time_days": 14, "useful_life_days": 365 }, "idle-general-purpose-cpu": { "hardware_class_code": 4, "initial_lots_per_scale": 8, "vendor_inventory_lots_per_scale": 16, "vendor_restock_lots_per_scale": 4, "first_vendor_restock_day": 30, "vendor_restock_interval_days": 30, "capacity_mwork_per_lot": 250000, "acquisition_cost_mcredit": 150000, "operating_cost_mcredit_per_day": 20000, "lead_time_days": 7, "useful_life_days": 730 }, "commodity-gpu": { "hardware_class_code": 8, "initial_lots_per_scale": 0, "vendor_inventory_lots_per_scale": 8, "vendor_restock_lots_per_scale": 2, "first_vendor_restock_day": 90, "vendor_restock_interval_days": 90, "capacity_mwork_per_lot": 500000, "acquisition_cost_mcredit": 800000, "operating_cost_mcredit_per_day": 60000, "lead_time_days": 180, "useful_life_days": 730 }, "initial_assignment": "semantic round-robin within overlap class; each lot has one beneficial owner, one facility, and zero or one lessee" }, "cash_distribution_mcredit": { "hash-owner-organizations": 2400000, "facility-specialists": 8000000, "pool-service-organizations": 12000000, "economic-services": 10000000, "validator-only-organizations": 1200000, "hardware-vendors": 18000000, "communication-relays": 3000000, "strategic-entrant-base": 2400000 } }, "relationships": { "beneficial_owner": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "accounting_unit": "hardware lot and matured beneficial claim", "assignment_rule": "one root owner per lot or claim; custody never creates a second owner", "switching_delay_epochs": 0, "failure_action": "remove only the owner's lots and claims", "reported_separately": true }, "facility": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "accounting_unit": "active capacity-mwork hosted", "assignment_rule": "capacity clears by posted total cost then semantic tie draw", "switching_delay_epochs": 12, "failure_action": "idle affected lots until a new facility is delivered", "reported_separately": true }, "pool_coordinator": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "accounting_unit": "submitted capacity-mwork", "assignment_rule": "individual owner choice from locally observed fee, variance, uptime, and reputation", "switching_delay_epochs": 2, "failure_action": "each observing miner individually reaffiliates or mines solo", "reported_separately": true }, "job_gateway": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "accounting_unit": "accepted work opportunity", "assignment_rule": "independent choice subject to template compatibility and delivered latency", "switching_delay_epochs": 1, "failure_action": "portable fallback if configured, otherwise work idles", "reported_separately": true }, "template_author": { "authority": "intervention", "accounting_unit": "accepted block template", "assignment_rule": "miner-local or upstream authorship according to the actual accepted template path", "switching_delay_epochs": 1, "failure_action": "apply the declared fallback path without changing payout custody", "reported_separately": true }, "share_accountant": { "authority": "intervention", "accounting_unit": "recognized contributed work", "assignment_rule": "one accountant recognizes each share claim; recognition never assigns a template", "switching_delay_epochs": 2, "failure_action": "freeze disputed claims and permit individual exit", "reported_separately": true }, "payout_custodian": { "authority": "intervention", "accounting_unit": "unmatured or held reward balance", "assignment_rule": "custodial or portable noncustodial settlement chosen independently of template authorship", "switching_delay_epochs": 4, "failure_action": "default realizes only the custodian's conserved balance shortfall", "reported_separately": true }, "broadcaster": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "accounting_unit": "solved block submission", "assignment_rule": "lowest locally observed propagation cost subject to compatibility", "switching_delay_epochs": 1, "failure_action": "retry through at most three delivered alternatives", "reported_separately": true }, "validating_upstream": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "accounting_unit": "independently validated accepted block path", "assignment_rule": "each process validates under its owned resource budget and consensus rules", "switching_delay_epochs": 0, "failure_action": "reject, degrade, or exit without casting an economic vote", "reported_separately": true }, "economic_service": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "accounting_unit": "live settlement capacity", "assignment_rule": "service enters or exits from local liveness, loss, liquidity, demand, and integration cost", "switching_delay_epochs": 8, "failure_action": "transition live to halted to withdrawn", "reported_separately": true } }, "initialization": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "baseline_context": { "market_demand_support_ppm": 420000, "hardware_acquisition_cost_multiplier": { "num": 1, "den": 1 }, "hardware_operating_cost_multiplier": { "num": 1, "den": 1 }, "entrant_cash_multiplier": 1, "top_owner_removal_share_ppm": 1000000, "policy_code": 1, "topology_code": 1, "market_rule_code": 1, "initialization_profile_code": 1 }, "distributions": { "initial-lot-age-days": [ 0, 90, 365 ], "power-cost-mcredit-per-mwork-day": [ 12000, 24000, 48000 ], "hosting-cost-mcredit-per-mwork-day": [ 4000, 12000, 28000 ], "block-fee-satoshi": [ 5000000, 25000000, 100000000 ], "hardware-resale-share-ppm": [ 250000, 500000, 750000 ], "service-integration-cost-mcredit": [ 250000, 1000000, 4000000 ], "market-demand-boundary-ppm": [ 180000, 420000, 660000 ], "initialization-profiles": { "balanced": { "profile_code": 1, "incumbent_lot_transfers": 0, "household_cpu_transfer_share_ppm": 0, "transfer_cash_share_ppm": 0, "service_initial_live_share_ppm": 1000000 }, "incumbent-heavy": { "profile_code": 2, "incumbent_lot_transfers": 2, "household_cpu_transfer_share_ppm": 0, "transfer_cash_share_ppm": 0, "service_initial_live_share_ppm": 1000000 } } }, "topologies": { "local-mesh": { "target-degree": 4, "latency-seconds": [ 1, 5, 20 ], "message-loss-ppm": 10000 }, "hub-spoke": { "target-degree": 3, "latency-seconds": [ 1, 10, 60 ], "message-loss-ppm": 30000 }, "geographic-small-world": { "target-degree": 6, "latency-seconds": [ 2, 40, 180 ], "message-loss-ppm": 50000 }, "fragmented": { "target-degree": 2, "latency-seconds": [ 10, 120, 900 ], "message-loss-ppm": 150000 } } }, "information": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "delivery_classes": { "private": { "minimum-delay-seconds": 60, "maximum-delay-seconds": 21600, "audience-share-ppm": 100000, "acknowledgment-required": false }, "partial": { "minimum-delay-seconds": 300, "maximum-delay-seconds": 43200, "audience-share-ppm": 500000, "acknowledgment-required": true }, "public": { "minimum-delay-seconds": 60, "maximum-delay-seconds": 86400, "audience-share-ppm": 1000000, "acknowledgment-required": true } }, "credibility_update": { "prior-ppm": 500000, "cheap-talk-evidence-weight-ppm": 50000, "public-signal-weight-ppm": 200000, "costly-action-weight-ppm": 600000, "binding-commitment-weight-ppm": 900000, "failed-promise-penalty-ppm": 400000, "rounding": "round-half-to-even" }, "memory": { "memory-seconds": 2592000, "maximum-observations-per-actor": 128, "decay-per-base-epoch-ppm": 990000, "unobserved-global-state-readable": false } }, "policies": [ { "id": "threshold-memory", "authority": "stipulated-range", "structure": "integer utility thresholds updated from delivered reward, loss, default, service, and credibility memories", "parameters": { "entry-margin-mcredit": 150000, "exit-loss-epochs": 8, "switch-improvement-mcredit": 50000, "belief-weight-ppm": 600000 }, "permitted_inputs": [ "private-state", "delivered-observations", "protocol-public-state" ], "forbidden_inputs": [ "treatment_id", "desired_outcome", "undelivered_commitments", "global_outcome_state" ] }, { "id": "satisficing-imitation", "authority": "stipulated-range", "structure": "retain a feasible relationship until a locally observed peer clears a declared improvement and credibility threshold", "parameters": { "satisfaction-floor-mcredit": 0, "peer-improvement-mcredit": 100000, "minimum-peer-credibility-ppm": 600000, "maximum-candidate-peers": 4 }, "permitted_inputs": [ "private-state", "delivered-observations", "protocol-public-state" ], "forbidden_inputs": [ "treatment_id", "desired_outcome", "undelivered_commitments", "global_outcome_state" ] }, { "id": "belief-weighted-entry", "authority": "stipulated-range", "structure": "enter only when delivered service support and expected conserved cash flow jointly exceed an integer threshold", "parameters": { "minimum-service-belief-ppm": 420000, "minimum-cash-margin-mcredit": 300000, "loss-memory-weight-ppm": 750000, "maximum-acquisition-lots-per-epoch": 1 }, "permitted_inputs": [ "private-state", "delivered-observations", "protocol-public-state" ], "forbidden_inputs": [ "treatment_id", "desired_outcome", "undelivered_commitments", "global_outcome_state" ] } ], "mechanism_feature_library": [ { "id": "grin-cuckoo-evolution", "source_mechanism_id": "mechanism-grin-cuckoo-evolution", "authority": "intervention", "features": [ { "id": "pow_schedule", "kind": "intervention", "profiles": { "stable-no-scheduled-transition": { "profile_code": 1, "lane_count": 1, "transition_days": [], "lane_share_ppm_by_phase": [ [ 1000000 ] ] }, "dual-lane-evolving": { "profile_code": 2, "lane_count": 2, "transition_days": [ 180, 365 ], "lane_share_ppm_by_phase": [ [ 500000, 500000 ], [ 250000, 750000 ], [ 0, 1000000 ] ] } }, "transition": "At days 180 and 365, update eligible work profiles and lane reward shares only in the evolving profile." }, { "id": "hardware_eligibility", "kind": "state", "profiles": { "asic-only": { "profile_code": 1, "eligible_hardware_class_mask": 3 }, "cpu-general-purpose": { "profile_code": 2, "eligible_hardware_class_mask": 4 }, "scheduled-gpu-asic": { "profile_code": 3, "eligible_hardware_class_mask": 11 }, "multi-class": { "profile_code": 4, "eligible_hardware_class_mask": 15 } }, "transition": "Determine which conserved hardware lots can submit eligible work at each protocol opportunity." }, { "id": "beneficial_hash_ownership", "kind": "outcome", "profiles": { "reduced-from-lot-ledger": { "profile_code": 1 } }, "transition": "Reduce accepted work by beneficial lot owner independently of pool labels." } ] }, { "id": "cryptonight-randomx-commodity-hardware", "source_mechanism_id": "mechanism-randomx-commodity-hardware", "authority": "intervention", "features": [ { "id": "hardware_class_efficiency", "kind": "parameter", "profiles": { "mature-asic-profile": { "profile_code": 1, "class_efficiency_ppm_by_code": [ [1, 1000000], [2, 1000000], [4, 0], [8, 0] ] }, "accessible-cpu-profile": { "profile_code": 2, "class_efficiency_ppm_by_code": [ [1, 0], [2, 0], [4, 1000000], [8, 0] ] }, "scheduled-mixed-profile": { "profile_code": 3, "class_efficiency_ppm_by_code": [ [1, 1000000], [2, 800000], [4, 500000], [8, 1000000] ] }, "four-class-profile": { "profile_code": 4, "class_efficiency_ppm_by_code": [ [1, 1000000], [2, 800000], [4, 600000], [8, 900000] ] } }, "transition": "Apply the declared integer capacity, power, acquisition, and lead-time profile to each eligible lot." }, { "id": "general_purpose_capacity", "kind": "state", "profiles": { "inactive": { "profile_code": 1, "hardware_class_mask": 4, "initial_idle_lots_enabled": false, "vendor_new_lots_enabled": false, "maximum_new_lots_per_actor_epoch": 0, "owner_consent_required": true }, "voluntary-idle-and-vendor-cpu": { "profile_code": 2, "hardware_class_mask": 4, "initial_idle_lots_enabled": true, "vendor_new_lots_enabled": true, "maximum_new_lots_per_actor_epoch": 1, "owner_consent_required": true } }, "transition": "Enable declared voluntarily owned initial CPU lots and, only in the vendor profile, the finite CPU inventory and restocking schedule in population.hardware_lot_distribution." }, { "id": "unconsented_compute_share", "kind": "outcome", "profiles": { "reported-separately": { "profile_code": 1, "configured_share_ppm": 0 } }, "transition": "Report unauthorized capacity separately and fix it at zero in this first-spine boundary." } ] }, { "id": "mature-commodity-asic-markets", "source_mechanism_id": "mechanism-mature-commodity-asic-markets", "authority": "intervention", "features": [ { "id": "asic_generation", "kind": "state", "profiles": { "mature-resale-active": { "profile_code": 1, "active_asic_class_mask": 3, "primary_inventory_enabled": true, "resale_enabled": true }, "secondary-only": { "profile_code": 2, "active_asic_class_mask": 2, "primary_inventory_enabled": false, "resale_enabled": true }, "mixed-scheduled": { "profile_code": 3, "active_asic_class_mask": 3, "primary_inventory_enabled": true, "resale_enabled": true }, "not-eligible": { "profile_code": 4, "active_asic_class_mask": 0, "primary_inventory_enabled": false, "resale_enabled": false } }, "transition": "Age, list, transfer, fail, and retire conserved ASIC lots under the declared resale profile." }, { "id": "supply_chain_access", "kind": "parameter", "profiles": { "mature-45-day": { "profile_code": 1, "vendor_hardware_class_mask": 3, "lead_time_override_days": 45, "use_population_inventory_schedule": true }, "accessible-7-day": { "profile_code": 2, "vendor_hardware_class_mask": 4, "lead_time_override_days": 7, "use_population_inventory_schedule": true }, "scheduled-180-day": { "profile_code": 3, "vendor_hardware_class_mask": 11, "lead_time_override_days": 180, "use_population_inventory_schedule": true }, "four-lane-mixed": { "profile_code": 4, "vendor_hardware_class_mask": 15, "lead_time_override_days": 45, "use_population_inventory_schedule": true } }, "transition": "Clear finite vendor inventory by total cost and semantic tie draw after the declared lead time." }, { "id": "beneficial_owner_hhi", "kind": "outcome", "profiles": { "reduced-from-lot-ledger": { "profile_code": 1 } }, "transition": "Compute owner HHI from active lot capacity rather than configure it." } ] }, { "id": "multi-work-rotation-capped-lanes", "source_mechanism_id": "mechanism-multi-work-rotation-capped-lanes", "authority": "intervention", "features": [ { "id": "lane_assignment_rule", "kind": "intervention", "profiles": { "single-lane": { "profile_code": 1, "lane_count": 1, "rolling_window_blocks": 144, "per_lane_cap_ppm": 1000000, "lane_hardware_class_masks": [15], "lane_algorithm_codes": [1] }, "scheduled-dual-lane": { "profile_code": 2, "lane_count": 2, "rolling_window_blocks": 144, "per_lane_cap_ppm": 1000000, "lane_hardware_class_masks": [8, 3], "lane_algorithm_codes": [2, 3] }, "four-lane-capped": { "profile_code": 3, "lane_count": 4, "rolling_window_blocks": 144, "per_lane_cap_ppm": 250000, "lane_hardware_class_masks": [1, 2, 4, 8], "lane_algorithm_codes": [4, 5, 6, 7] } }, "transition": "Assign each block opportunity to one lane; the capped profile limits each lane to 250000 share-ppm over each 144-block window." }, { "id": "cross_lane_owner_graph", "kind": "state", "profiles": { "single-lane-owner-ledger": { "profile_code": 1, "resolve_common_root_owner": true }, "common-owner-resolved": { "profile_code": 2, "resolve_common_root_owner": true } }, "transition": "Resolve lots in every nominal lane to the same root beneficial-owner namespace." }, { "id": "lane_security_budget", "kind": "outcome", "profiles": { "reduced-per-lane-and-combined": { "profile_code": 1 } }, "transition": "Reduce reward, stale, reorg, and active work per lane and across the combined chain." } ] }, { "id": "pool-template-payout-separation", "source_mechanism_id": "mechanism-pool-template-payout-separation", "authority": "intervention", "features": [ { "id": "template_authority", "kind": "state", "profiles": { "pool-bundled": { "profile_code": 1, "miner_selectable": false, "minimum_independent_endpoints": 0 }, "miner-local-independent": { "profile_code": 2, "miner_selectable": true, "minimum_independent_endpoints": 2 } }, "transition": "Record the actor that authored each accepted template separately from work and payout relationships." }, { "id": "payout_service", "kind": "state", "profiles": { "pooled-custody": { "profile_code": 1, "miner_selectable": false, "custody_required": true, "minimum_independent_endpoints": 0, "reserve_ratio": { "num": 1, "den": 4 } }, "portable-noncustodial": { "profile_code": 2, "miner_selectable": true, "custody_required": false, "minimum_independent_endpoints": 2, "reserve_ratio": { "num": 1, "den": 1 } } }, "transition": "Conserve reward claims through custody, maturity, transfer, default, and exit without assigning template authors." }, { "id": "fallback_policy", "kind": "intervention", "profiles": { "upstream-template-default": { "profile_code": 1, "local_attempts": 0, "portable_attempts": 0 }, "local-then-portable-exit": { "profile_code": 2, "local_attempts": 1, "portable_attempts": 3 } }, "transition": "On local template timeout or refusal, either accept the upstream template or move through a delivered portable gateway." }, { "id": "effective_template_control", "kind": "outcome", "profiles": { "reduced-from-accepted-blocks": { "profile_code": 1 } }, "transition": "Compute accepted block share by actual template author." } ] }, { "id": "independent-verification-resources", "source_mechanism_id": "mechanism-independent-verification-resources", "authority": "intervention", "features": [ { "id": "block_resource_policy", "kind": "intervention", "profiles": { "bitcoin-weight-control": { "profile_code": 1, "maximum_block_weight_units": 4000000, "maximum_validation_work_units": 4000000, "maximum_signature_checks": 80000 }, "bounded-validation-profile": { "profile_code": 2, "maximum_block_weight_units": 1000000, "maximum_validation_work_units": 1000000, "maximum_signature_checks": 20000 } }, "transition": "Reject candidate blocks above the declared weight and validation-work limits." }, { "id": "node_resource_budget", "kind": "state", "profiles": { "ordinary-current-budget": { "profile_code": 1, "memory_bytes": 8589934592, "storage_bytes": 1073741824000, "bandwidth_bytes_per_epoch": 1073741824, "validation_work_units_per_epoch": 16000000 }, "household-bounded-budget": { "profile_code": 2, "memory_bytes": 2147483648, "storage_bytes": 268435456000, "bandwidth_bytes_per_epoch": 268435456, "validation_work_units_per_epoch": 4000000 } }, "transition": "Debit bandwidth, storage, memory, and validation work from each independently owned node process." }, { "id": "independent_verifier_retention", "kind": "outcome", "profiles": { "reduced-from-live-processes": { "profile_code": 1 } }, "transition": "Compute retained independent validating owners without treating node count as votes." } ] } ], "model_intervention_features": [ { "id": "coalition_commitment_profile", "kind": "intervention", "authority": "intervention", "profiles": { "cheap-talk": { "profile_code": 1, "delivery_class_code": 1, "audience_share_ppm": 100000, "base_credibility_ppm": 50000, "cash_cost_share_ppm": 0, "defection_penalty_share_ppm": 0, "effective_delay_epochs": 0, "expiry_epochs": 4, "reversible": true, "acknowledgment_required": false }, "public-signal": { "profile_code": 2, "delivery_class_code": 3, "audience_share_ppm": 1000000, "base_credibility_ppm": 200000, "cash_cost_share_ppm": 0, "defection_penalty_share_ppm": 0, "effective_delay_epochs": 1, "expiry_epochs": 20, "reversible": true, "acknowledgment_required": true }, "costly-reversible": { "profile_code": 3, "delivery_class_code": 3, "audience_share_ppm": 1000000, "base_credibility_ppm": 600000, "cash_cost_share_ppm": 10000, "defection_penalty_share_ppm": 0, "effective_delay_epochs": 2, "expiry_epochs": 120, "reversible": true, "acknowledgment_required": true }, "binding-expiring": { "profile_code": 4, "delivery_class_code": 3, "audience_share_ppm": 1000000, "base_credibility_ppm": 900000, "cash_cost_share_ppm": 10000, "defection_penalty_share_ppm": 100000, "effective_delay_epochs": 2, "expiry_epochs": 120, "reversible": false, "acknowledgment_required": true } }, "transition": "Create delivered coalition offers with exact audience, credibility, cash cost, reversibility, defection penalty, effective time, and expiry." }, { "id": "job_gateway_layout", "kind": "intervention", "authority": "intervention", "profiles": { "pool-bundled": { "profile_code": 1, "miner_selectable": false, "minimum_independent_endpoints": 0, "fallback_attempts": 0 }, "portable-independent": { "profile_code": 2, "miner_selectable": true, "minimum_independent_endpoints": 2, "fallback_attempts": 3 } }, "transition": "Choose job gateway independently only in the portable profile." }, { "id": "share_accounting_layout", "kind": "intervention", "authority": "intervention", "profiles": { "pool-bundled": { "profile_code": 1, "miner_selectable": false, "minimum_independent_endpoints": 0, "claim_portable": false }, "portable-independent": { "profile_code": 2, "miner_selectable": true, "minimum_independent_endpoints": 2, "claim_portable": true } }, "transition": "Recognize work independently from payout custody only in the portable profile." }, { "id": "broadcast_layout", "kind": "intervention", "authority": "intervention", "profiles": { "pool-bundled": { "profile_code": 1, "miner_selectable": false, "independent_relay_count": 0, "maximum_attempts": 1 }, "multi-relay-portable": { "profile_code": 2, "miner_selectable": true, "independent_relay_count": 3, "maximum_attempts": 3 } }, "transition": "Submit solved blocks through a separately chosen relay only in the portable profile." }, { "id": "validating_upstream_layout", "kind": "intervention", "authority": "intervention", "profiles": { "pool-bundled": { "profile_code": 1, "miner_selectable": false, "minimum_independent_endpoints": 0, "validate_before_submit": false }, "independent-portable": { "profile_code": 2, "miner_selectable": true, "minimum_independent_endpoints": 2, "validate_before_submit": true } }, "transition": "Choose a validating upstream independently of pool and gateway only in the portable profile; every chosen endpoint enforces its own declared node budget and consensus rules." } ], "treatments": [ { "id": "mature-asic-bundled-control-a", "display_label": "Mature ASIC, bundled control", "features": { "pow_schedule": "stable-no-scheduled-transition", "hardware_eligibility": "asic-only", "hardware_class_efficiency": "mature-asic-profile", "general_purpose_capacity": "inactive", "asic_generation": "mature-resale-active", "supply_chain_access": "mature-45-day", "lane_assignment_rule": "single-lane", "cross_lane_owner_graph": "single-lane-owner-ledger", "template_authority": "pool-bundled", "payout_service": "pooled-custody", "fallback_policy": "upstream-template-default", "block_resource_policy": "bitcoin-weight-control", "node_resource_budget": "ordinary-current-budget", "coalition_commitment_profile": "cheap-talk", "job_gateway_layout": "pool-bundled", "share_accounting_layout": "pool-bundled", "broadcast_layout": "pool-bundled", "validating_upstream_layout": "pool-bundled" } }, { "id": "mature-asic-bundled-control-b", "display_label": "Renamed mature ASIC control", "features": { "pow_schedule": "stable-no-scheduled-transition", "hardware_eligibility": "asic-only", "hardware_class_efficiency": "mature-asic-profile", "general_purpose_capacity": "inactive", "asic_generation": "mature-resale-active", "supply_chain_access": "mature-45-day", "lane_assignment_rule": "single-lane", "cross_lane_owner_graph": "single-lane-owner-ledger", "template_authority": "pool-bundled", "payout_service": "pooled-custody", "fallback_policy": "upstream-template-default", "block_resource_policy": "bitcoin-weight-control", "node_resource_budget": "ordinary-current-budget", "coalition_commitment_profile": "cheap-talk", "job_gateway_layout": "pool-bundled", "share_accounting_layout": "pool-bundled", "broadcast_layout": "pool-bundled", "validating_upstream_layout": "pool-bundled" } }, { "id": "mature-asic-role-unbundled", "display_label": "Mature ASIC with portable role separation", "features": { "pow_schedule": "stable-no-scheduled-transition", "hardware_eligibility": "asic-only", "hardware_class_efficiency": "mature-asic-profile", "general_purpose_capacity": "inactive", "asic_generation": "mature-resale-active", "supply_chain_access": "mature-45-day", "lane_assignment_rule": "single-lane", "cross_lane_owner_graph": "single-lane-owner-ledger", "template_authority": "miner-local-independent", "payout_service": "portable-noncustodial", "fallback_policy": "local-then-portable-exit", "block_resource_policy": "bitcoin-weight-control", "node_resource_budget": "ordinary-current-budget", "coalition_commitment_profile": "cheap-talk", "job_gateway_layout": "portable-independent", "share_accounting_layout": "portable-independent", "broadcast_layout": "multi-relay-portable", "validating_upstream_layout": "independent-portable" } }, { "id": "accessible-hardware-unbundled", "display_label": "Accessible CPU entry with portable role separation", "features": { "pow_schedule": "stable-no-scheduled-transition", "hardware_eligibility": "cpu-general-purpose", "hardware_class_efficiency": "accessible-cpu-profile", "general_purpose_capacity": "voluntary-idle-and-vendor-cpu", "asic_generation": "not-eligible", "supply_chain_access": "accessible-7-day", "lane_assignment_rule": "single-lane", "cross_lane_owner_graph": "single-lane-owner-ledger", "template_authority": "miner-local-independent", "payout_service": "portable-noncustodial", "fallback_policy": "local-then-portable-exit", "block_resource_policy": "bitcoin-weight-control", "node_resource_budget": "ordinary-current-budget", "coalition_commitment_profile": "cheap-talk", "job_gateway_layout": "portable-independent", "share_accounting_layout": "portable-independent", "broadcast_layout": "multi-relay-portable", "validating_upstream_layout": "independent-portable" } }, { "id": "accessible-unbundled-public-signal", "display_label": "Accessible and unbundled with public signal", "features": { "pow_schedule": "stable-no-scheduled-transition", "hardware_eligibility": "cpu-general-purpose", "hardware_class_efficiency": "accessible-cpu-profile", "general_purpose_capacity": "voluntary-idle-and-vendor-cpu", "asic_generation": "not-eligible", "supply_chain_access": "accessible-7-day", "lane_assignment_rule": "single-lane", "cross_lane_owner_graph": "single-lane-owner-ledger", "template_authority": "miner-local-independent", "payout_service": "portable-noncustodial", "fallback_policy": "local-then-portable-exit", "block_resource_policy": "bitcoin-weight-control", "node_resource_budget": "ordinary-current-budget", "coalition_commitment_profile": "public-signal", "job_gateway_layout": "portable-independent", "share_accounting_layout": "portable-independent", "broadcast_layout": "multi-relay-portable", "validating_upstream_layout": "independent-portable" } }, { "id": "positive-costly-bundle", "display_label": "Accessible, unbundled, costly commitment", "features": { "pow_schedule": "stable-no-scheduled-transition", "hardware_eligibility": "cpu-general-purpose", "hardware_class_efficiency": "accessible-cpu-profile", "general_purpose_capacity": "voluntary-idle-and-vendor-cpu", "asic_generation": "not-eligible", "supply_chain_access": "accessible-7-day", "lane_assignment_rule": "single-lane", "cross_lane_owner_graph": "single-lane-owner-ledger", "template_authority": "miner-local-independent", "payout_service": "portable-noncustodial", "fallback_policy": "local-then-portable-exit", "block_resource_policy": "bitcoin-weight-control", "node_resource_budget": "ordinary-current-budget", "coalition_commitment_profile": "costly-reversible", "job_gateway_layout": "portable-independent", "share_accounting_layout": "portable-independent", "broadcast_layout": "multi-relay-portable", "validating_upstream_layout": "independent-portable" } }, { "id": "positive-binding-bundle", "display_label": "Accessible, unbundled, binding commitment", "features": { "pow_schedule": "stable-no-scheduled-transition", "hardware_eligibility": "cpu-general-purpose", "hardware_class_efficiency": "accessible-cpu-profile", "general_purpose_capacity": "voluntary-idle-and-vendor-cpu", "asic_generation": "not-eligible", "supply_chain_access": "accessible-7-day", "lane_assignment_rule": "single-lane", "cross_lane_owner_graph": "single-lane-owner-ledger", "template_authority": "miner-local-independent", "payout_service": "portable-noncustodial", "fallback_policy": "local-then-portable-exit", "block_resource_policy": "bitcoin-weight-control", "node_resource_budget": "ordinary-current-budget", "coalition_commitment_profile": "binding-expiring", "job_gateway_layout": "portable-independent", "share_accounting_layout": "portable-independent", "broadcast_layout": "multi-relay-portable", "validating_upstream_layout": "independent-portable" } }, { "id": "grin-scheduled-unbundled-costly", "display_label": "Scheduled dual work with unbundled costly commitment", "features": { "pow_schedule": "dual-lane-evolving", "hardware_eligibility": "scheduled-gpu-asic", "hardware_class_efficiency": "scheduled-mixed-profile", "general_purpose_capacity": "inactive", "asic_generation": "mixed-scheduled", "supply_chain_access": "scheduled-180-day", "lane_assignment_rule": "scheduled-dual-lane", "cross_lane_owner_graph": "common-owner-resolved", "template_authority": "miner-local-independent", "payout_service": "portable-noncustodial", "fallback_policy": "local-then-portable-exit", "block_resource_policy": "bitcoin-weight-control", "node_resource_budget": "ordinary-current-budget", "coalition_commitment_profile": "costly-reversible", "job_gateway_layout": "portable-independent", "share_accounting_layout": "portable-independent", "broadcast_layout": "multi-relay-portable", "validating_upstream_layout": "independent-portable" } }, { "id": "multiwork-unbundled-costly", "display_label": "Four capped work lanes with unbundled costly commitment", "features": { "pow_schedule": "stable-no-scheduled-transition", "hardware_eligibility": "multi-class", "hardware_class_efficiency": "four-class-profile", "general_purpose_capacity": "voluntary-idle-and-vendor-cpu", "asic_generation": "secondary-only", "supply_chain_access": "four-lane-mixed", "lane_assignment_rule": "four-lane-capped", "cross_lane_owner_graph": "common-owner-resolved", "template_authority": "miner-local-independent", "payout_service": "portable-noncustodial", "fallback_policy": "local-then-portable-exit", "block_resource_policy": "bitcoin-weight-control", "node_resource_budget": "ordinary-current-budget", "coalition_commitment_profile": "costly-reversible", "job_gateway_layout": "portable-independent", "share_accounting_layout": "portable-independent", "broadcast_layout": "multi-relay-portable", "validating_upstream_layout": "independent-portable" } }, { "id": "positive-bounded-verifier-bundle", "display_label": "Positive bundle with bounded household verification", "features": { "pow_schedule": "stable-no-scheduled-transition", "hardware_eligibility": "cpu-general-purpose", "hardware_class_efficiency": "accessible-cpu-profile", "general_purpose_capacity": "voluntary-idle-and-vendor-cpu", "asic_generation": "not-eligible", "supply_chain_access": "accessible-7-day", "lane_assignment_rule": "single-lane", "cross_lane_owner_graph": "single-lane-owner-ledger", "template_authority": "miner-local-independent", "payout_service": "portable-noncustodial", "fallback_policy": "local-then-portable-exit", "block_resource_policy": "bounded-validation-profile", "node_resource_budget": "household-bounded-budget", "coalition_commitment_profile": "costly-reversible", "job_gateway_layout": "portable-independent", "share_accounting_layout": "portable-independent", "broadcast_layout": "multi-relay-portable", "validating_upstream_layout": "independent-portable" } } ], "contrasts": [ { "id": "label-invariance", "control_treatment_id": "mature-asic-bundled-control-a", "treatment_treatment_id": "mature-asic-bundled-control-b", "causal_question": "Does changing only the display label leave every scientific byte unchanged?", "primary": false }, { "id": "role-unbundling", "control_treatment_id": "mature-asic-bundled-control-a", "treatment_treatment_id": "mature-asic-role-unbundled", "causal_question": "What changes when template, gateway, share, payout, broadcast, and validation authority become portable and separate?", "primary": false }, { "id": "accessible-hardware", "control_treatment_id": "mature-asic-role-unbundled", "treatment_treatment_id": "accessible-hardware-unbundled", "causal_question": "What changes when voluntary general-purpose hardware can enter under the same unbundled control relations?", "primary": false }, { "id": "costly-commitment", "control_treatment_id": "accessible-hardware-unbundled", "treatment_treatment_id": "positive-costly-bundle", "causal_question": "What changes when cheap talk becomes a costly reversible coalition commitment?", "primary": false }, { "id": "positive-bundle", "control_treatment_id": "mature-asic-bundled-control-a", "treatment_treatment_id": "positive-costly-bundle", "causal_question": "Does the full constructive bundle create a live, distributed, shock-recoverable regime, and where does it reverse?", "primary": true }, { "id": "public-signal", "control_treatment_id": "accessible-hardware-unbundled", "treatment_treatment_id": "accessible-unbundled-public-signal", "causal_question": "Is a delivered public signal sufficient without a costly commitment?", "primary": false }, { "id": "binding-commitment", "control_treatment_id": "positive-costly-bundle", "treatment_treatment_id": "positive-binding-bundle", "causal_question": "Does an expiring binding commitment improve recovery or create brittle lock-in relative to costly reversible action?", "primary": false }, { "id": "grin-schedule", "control_treatment_id": "positive-costly-bundle", "treatment_treatment_id": "grin-scheduled-unbundled-costly", "causal_question": "Does scheduled dual-work evolution widen entry or return control through transition readiness and supply lead time?", "primary": false }, { "id": "multiwork-cap", "control_treatment_id": "positive-costly-bundle", "treatment_treatment_id": "multiwork-unbundled-costly", "causal_question": "Do capped work lanes distribute control after common ownership and weak-lane consequences are resolved?", "primary": false }, { "id": "verifier-resource-bound", "control_treatment_id": "positive-costly-bundle", "treatment_treatment_id": "positive-bounded-verifier-bundle", "causal_question": "Does a bounded validation profile retain independent validating owners without hiding costs elsewhere?", "primary": false } ], "axes": { "history_trigger": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "values": ["reward-matures", "pool-default-observed", "service-withdrawal-observed"], "profiles": { "reward-matures": {"event_code": 1, "minimum_history_count": 1}, "pool-default-observed": {"event_code": 2, "minimum_history_count": 1}, "service-withdrawal-observed": {"event_code": 3, "minimum_history_count": 1} } }, "retrospective_target": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "field_authorities": { "target_code": "stipulated-range", "observed_integer": "measured", "observed_integer_sequence": "measured", "reference_integer": "stipulated-range", "evaluation_elapsed_seconds": "stipulated-range", "reduction_code": "stipulated-range", "transform_code": "stipulated-range", "target_integer": "stipulated-range", "target_integer_sequence": "stipulated-range", "absolute_tolerance_integer": "stipulated-range", "required_sequence_length": "stipulated-range", "rejection_code": "stipulated-range", "claim_limit_code": "stipulated-range" }, "values": ["bip110-main-tip-height", "bip110-minority-tip-height", "bip110-relative-chainwork-order", "bip110-post-split-block-sequence"], "profiles": { "bip110-main-tip-height": { "target_code": 1, "observed_integer": 962237, "reference_integer": 961631, "evaluation_elapsed_seconds": 363600, "reduction_code": 1, "transform_code": 1, "target_integer": 606, "absolute_tolerance_integer": 61, "rejection_code": 1, "claim_limit_code": 1 }, "bip110-minority-tip-height": { "target_code": 2, "observed_integer": 961635, "reference_integer": 961631, "evaluation_elapsed_seconds": 363600, "reduction_code": 2, "transform_code": 1, "target_integer": 4, "absolute_tolerance_integer": 1, "rejection_code": 1, "claim_limit_code": 2 }, "bip110-relative-chainwork-order": { "target_code": 3, "observed_integer": 1, "reference_integer": 0, "evaluation_elapsed_seconds": 363600, "reduction_code": 3, "transform_code": 2, "target_integer": 1, "absolute_tolerance_integer": 0, "rejection_code": 2, "claim_limit_code": 3 }, "bip110-post-split-block-sequence": { "target_code": 4, "observed_integer_sequence": [961632, 961633, 961634, 961635], "reference_integer": 961631, "evaluation_elapsed_seconds": 363600, "reduction_code": 4, "transform_code": 3, "target_integer_sequence": [1, 2, 3, 4], "absolute_tolerance_integer": 0, "required_sequence_length": 4, "rejection_code": 3, "claim_limit_code": 4 } } }, "demand_support_ppm": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "values": [180000, 420000, 660000], "profiles": { "180000": {"support_ppm": 180000}, "420000": {"support_ppm": 420000}, "660000": {"support_ppm": 660000} } }, "hardware_entry_cost_band": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "values": ["accessible", "constrained"], "profiles": { "accessible": {"acquisition_cost_multiplier": {"num": 1, "den": 2}, "operating_cost_multiplier": {"num": 3, "den": 4}}, "constrained": {"acquisition_cost_multiplier": {"num": 2, "den": 1}, "operating_cost_multiplier": {"num": 3, "den": 2}} } }, "commitment_delivery": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "values": ["partial", "public"], "profiles": { "partial": {"delivery_class_code": 2, "audience_share_ppm": 500000}, "public": {"delivery_class_code": 3, "audience_share_ppm": 1000000} } }, "commitment_credibility_ppm": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "values": [300000, 600000, 900000, 990000], "profiles": {"300000": {"credibility_ppm": 300000}, "600000": {"credibility_ppm": 600000}, "900000": {"credibility_ppm": 900000}, "990000": {"credibility_ppm": 990000}} }, "entrant_budget_band": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "values": [1, 2, 4, 8], "profiles": {"1": {"cash_multiplier": 1}, "2": {"cash_multiplier": 2}, "4": {"cash_multiplier": 4}, "8": {"cash_multiplier": 8}} }, "hardware_lead_time_days": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "values": [7, 45, 180], "profiles": {"7": {"lead_time_days": 7}, "45": {"lead_time_days": 45}, "180": {"lead_time_days": 180}} }, "payout_reserve_ratio": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "values": [{"num": 1, "den": 4}, {"num": 1, "den": 1}], "profiles": {"{\"den\":1,\"num\":1}": {"reserve_ratio": {"num": 1, "den": 1}}, "{\"den\":4,\"num\":1}": {"reserve_ratio": {"num": 1, "den": 4}}} }, "entrant_budget_boundary": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "values": [1, 2, 4, 8, 16], "profiles": {"1": {"cash_multiplier": 1}, "2": {"cash_multiplier": 2}, "4": {"cash_multiplier": 4}, "8": {"cash_multiplier": 8}, "16": {"cash_multiplier": 16}} }, "coalition_defection_penalty_band": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "values": ["low", "high"], "profiles": {"low": {"cash_penalty_share_ppm": 10000}, "high": {"cash_penalty_share_ppm": 250000}} }, "top_owner_removal_share_ppm": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "values": [1000000, 200000, 400000, 600000, 800000], "profiles": {"200000": {"removal_share_ppm": 200000}, "400000": {"removal_share_ppm": 400000}, "600000": {"removal_share_ppm": 600000}, "800000": {"removal_share_ppm": 800000}, "1000000": {"removal_share_ppm": 1000000}} }, "information_delivery_mode": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "values": ["private", "partial", "public"], "profiles": {"private": {"delivery_class_code": 1, "audience_share_ppm": 100000}, "partial": {"delivery_class_code": 2, "audience_share_ppm": 500000}, "public": {"delivery_class_code": 3, "audience_share_ppm": 1000000}} }, "commitment_cost_band": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "values": ["one-percent-cash", "ten-percent-cash"], "profiles": {"one-percent-cash": {"cash_cost_share_ppm": 10000}, "ten-percent-cash": {"cash_cost_share_ppm": 100000}} }, "message_loss_ppm": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "values": [0, 30000, 100000, 250000], "profiles": {"0": {"message_loss_ppm": 0}, "30000": {"message_loss_ppm": 30000}, "100000": {"message_loss_ppm": 100000}, "250000": {"message_loss_ppm": 250000}} }, "policy_family": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "values": ["threshold-memory", "satisficing-imitation", "belief-weighted-entry"], "profiles": {"threshold-memory": {"policy_code": 1}, "satisficing-imitation": {"policy_code": 2}, "belief-weighted-entry": {"policy_code": 3}} }, "decision_cadence_seconds": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "values": [10800, 43200], "profiles": {"10800": {"cadence_seconds": 10800}, "43200": {"cadence_seconds": 43200}} }, "topology_family": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "values": ["local-mesh", "hub-spoke", "geographic-small-world", "fragmented"], "profiles": {"local-mesh": {"topology_code": 1}, "hub-spoke": {"topology_code": 2}, "geographic-small-world": {"topology_code": 3}, "fragmented": {"topology_code": 4}} }, "market_clearing_family": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "values": ["economic-priority", "posted-offer"], "profiles": { "economic-priority": {"market_rule_code": 1, "rank_total_cost": true, "rank_posted_price": false, "semantic_tie_break_code": 1, "partial_fill_allowed": false}, "posted-offer": {"market_rule_code": 2, "rank_total_cost": false, "rank_posted_price": true, "semantic_tie_break_code": 1, "partial_fill_allowed": false} } }, "initialization_id": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "values": ["balanced", "incumbent-heavy"], "profiles": {"balanced": {"profile_code": 1}, "incumbent-heavy": {"profile_code": 2}} } }, "stages": [ { "id": "s1-hand-audit", "classification": "screening-design-only", "scientific_role": "Hand-auditable conservation, exact pairing, and null-label worlds; excluded from candidate findings.", "axes": [], "contrasts": [ "label-invariance", "role-unbundling", "accessible-hardware", "costly-commitment" ], "population_scales": [ "s01" ], "continuation_paths": [ "forward" ], "minimum_replicates_per_cell": 5, "maximum_replicates_per_cell": 5, "replicate_checkpoints": [ 5 ], "seed_base": 0, "findings_eligible": false, "stopping_rule_id": "paired-stability-v1", "timeline_id": "730-day-finite" }, { "id": "s2-agency-isolation", "classification": "screening-design-only", "scientific_role": "Prove that later choices respond to delivered consequences rather than static treatment assignments; excluded from candidate findings.", "axes": [ "history_trigger" ], "contrasts": [ "label-invariance", "role-unbundling", "accessible-hardware", "costly-commitment" ], "population_scales": [ "s01" ], "continuation_paths": [ "forward" ], "minimum_replicates_per_cell": 6, "maximum_replicates_per_cell": 6, "replicate_checkpoints": [ 6 ], "seed_base": 100000, "findings_eligible": false, "stopping_rule_id": "paired-stability-v1", "timeline_id": "730-day-finite" }, { "id": "s3-bip110-retrospective", "classification": "retrospective-diagnostic", "scientific_role": "Challenge four locked BIP-110 observables without calling them calibration or held-out evidence.", "axes": [ "retrospective_target" ], "contrasts": [ "positive-bundle", "role-unbundling" ], "population_scales": [ "s01" ], "continuation_paths": [ "forward", "reverse" ], "minimum_replicates_per_cell": 8, "maximum_replicates_per_cell": 8, "replicate_checkpoints": [ 8 ], "seed_base": 200000, "findings_eligible": false, "stopping_rule_id": "paired-stability-v1", "timeline_id": "730-day-finite" }, { "id": "s4-narrow-confirmatory", "classification": "candidate-confirmatory", "scientific_role": "Primary constructive decomposition: unbundling, hardware access, costly commitment, and the full positive bundle.", "axes": [ "demand_support_ppm", "hardware_entry_cost_band", "commitment_delivery", "commitment_credibility_ppm", "entrant_budget_band" ], "contrasts": [ "role-unbundling", "accessible-hardware", "costly-commitment", "positive-bundle" ], "population_scales": [ "s02", "s04" ], "continuation_paths": [ "forward", "reverse" ], "minimum_replicates_per_cell": 8, "maximum_replicates_per_cell": 32, "replicate_checkpoints": [ 4, 8, 16, 24, 32 ], "seed_base": 1000000, "findings_eligible": true, "stopping_rule_id": "paired-stability-v1", "timeline_id": "730-day-finite" }, { "id": "s5-boundary-confirmation", "classification": "candidate-boundary", "scientific_role": "Full preregistered boundary grid over supply, payout, entrant, defection, removal, and verification conditions; every minimum cell runs.", "axes": [ "hardware_lead_time_days", "payout_reserve_ratio", "entrant_budget_boundary", "coalition_defection_penalty_band", "top_owner_removal_share_ppm" ], "contrasts": [ "positive-bundle", "verifier-resource-bound" ], "population_scales": [ "s08", "s16" ], "continuation_paths": [ "forward", "reverse" ], "minimum_replicates_per_cell": 6, "maximum_replicates_per_cell": 24, "replicate_checkpoints": [ 3, 6, 12, 18, 24 ], "seed_base": 10000000, "findings_eligible": true, "stopping_rule_id": "paired-stability-v1", "timeline_id": "730-day-finite" }, { "id": "s6-communication-ablation", "classification": "candidate-boundary", "scientific_role": "Separate private delivery, partial delivery, public signals, costly action, and binding commitment without pooling them into the primary estimate.", "axes": [ "information_delivery_mode", "commitment_cost_band", "message_loss_ppm" ], "contrasts": [ "public-signal", "costly-commitment", "binding-commitment" ], "population_scales": [ "s04", "s08" ], "continuation_paths": [ "forward", "reverse" ], "minimum_replicates_per_cell": 4, "maximum_replicates_per_cell": 16, "replicate_checkpoints": [ 2, 4, 8, 12, 16 ], "seed_base": 20000000, "findings_eligible": true, "stopping_rule_id": "paired-stability-v1", "timeline_id": "730-day-finite" }, { "id": "s7-structural-robustness", "classification": "candidate-boundary", "scientific_role": "Test policy, cadence, topology, market, initialization, resolution, Grin schedule, and capped multi-work reversals separately from the primary contrast.", "axes": [ "policy_family", "decision_cadence_seconds", "topology_family", "market_clearing_family", "initialization_id" ], "contrasts": [ "grin-schedule", "multiwork-cap" ], "population_scales": [ "s02", "s04", "s08", "s16" ], "continuation_paths": [ "forward", "reverse" ], "minimum_replicates_per_cell": 3, "maximum_replicates_per_cell": 12, "replicate_checkpoints": [ 2, 3, 6, 9, 12 ], "seed_base": 30000000, "findings_eligible": true, "stopping_rule_id": "paired-stability-v1", "timeline_id": "730-day-finite" } ], "outcomes": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "metrics": [ { "id": "boot_horizon_seconds", "unit": "seconds", "scale": 1, "reduction": "first accepted block time minus simulated start" }, { "id": "chain_live_ppm", "unit": "share-ppm", "scale": 1000000, "reduction": "measurement epochs with an accepted block inside the liveness gap divided by all measurement epochs" }, { "id": "block_gap_p95_seconds", "unit": "seconds", "scale": 1, "reduction": "integer nearest-rank 95th percentile of accepted main-chain block gaps" }, { "id": "maximum_reorg_depth_blocks", "unit": "blocks", "scale": 1, "reduction": "maximum realized local-to-accepted reorganization depth" }, { "id": "active_work_ppm", "unit": "share-ppm-of-declared-eligible-capacity", "scale": 1000000, "reduction": "accepted active eligible work divided by finite eligible lot capacity" }, { "id": "independent_producer_count", "unit": "root-beneficial-owners", "scale": 1, "reduction": "distinct beneficial owners of accepted blocks in the measurement window" }, { "id": "home_hardware_reward_share_ppm", "unit": "share-ppm", "scale": 1000000, "reduction": "matured rewards beneficially owned by household overlap actors divided by all matured rewards" }, { "id": "beneficial_owner_hhi_ppm", "unit": "hhi-ppm", "scale": 1000000, "reduction": "sum of squared owner active-work share-ppm divided by 1000000" }, { "id": "facility_hhi_ppm", "unit": "hhi-ppm", "scale": 1000000, "reduction": "sum of squared accepted work by facility share-ppm divided by 1000000" }, { "id": "pool_hhi_ppm", "unit": "hhi-ppm", "scale": 1000000, "reduction": "sum of squared accepted work by pool coordinator share-ppm divided by 1000000" }, { "id": "job_gateway_hhi_ppm", "unit": "hhi-ppm", "scale": 1000000, "reduction": "sum of squared accepted work by job gateway share-ppm divided by 1000000" }, { "id": "template_author_hhi_ppm", "unit": "hhi-ppm", "scale": 1000000, "reduction": "sum of squared accepted blocks by actual template author share-ppm divided by 1000000" }, { "id": "share_accountant_hhi_ppm", "unit": "hhi-ppm", "scale": 1000000, "reduction": "sum of squared recognized work by share accountant share-ppm divided by 1000000" }, { "id": "payout_custodian_hhi_ppm", "unit": "hhi-ppm", "scale": 1000000, "reduction": "sum of squared held or transferred payout balances by custodian share-ppm divided by 1000000" }, { "id": "broadcaster_hhi_ppm", "unit": "hhi-ppm", "scale": 1000000, "reduction": "sum of squared solved block broadcasts by broadcaster share-ppm divided by 1000000" }, { "id": "validating_upstream_hhi_ppm", "unit": "hhi-ppm", "scale": 1000000, "reduction": "sum of squared accepted validation paths by root validating owner share-ppm divided by 1000000" }, { "id": "independent_verifier_retention_ppm", "unit": "share-ppm", "scale": 1000000, "reduction": "live independently owned validating processes divided by initially active independently owned validating processes" }, { "id": "economic_service_live_ppm", "unit": "share-ppm", "scale": 1000000, "reduction": "integration-weighted live economic services divided by all configured service capacity" }, { "id": "coalition_commitment_depth_ppm", "unit": "share-ppm", "scale": 1000000, "reduction": "active capacity whose beneficial owner has an unexpired acknowledged commitment divided by all active capacity" }, { "id": "recovery_time_seconds", "unit": "seconds", "scale": 1, "reduction": "first post-pulse time at which the full distributed-control threshold vector remains satisfied for 30 days" } ], "formulas": { "boot_horizon_seconds": { "numerator": "first-accepted-block-time-seconds minus world-start-seconds", "denominator": "one", "rounding": "exact", "quantile": "not-applicable" }, "chain_live_ppm": { "numerator": "live-measurement-epochs times 1000000", "denominator": "all-measurement-epochs", "rounding": "round-half-to-even", "quantile": "not-applicable" }, "block_gap_p95_seconds": { "numerator": "nearest-rank selected integer block gap", "denominator": "one", "rounding": "exact", "quantile": "nearest-rank index ceiling of 95 times count divided by 100" }, "maximum_reorg_depth_blocks": { "numerator": "maximum realized reorg depth", "denominator": "one", "rounding": "exact", "quantile": "not-applicable" }, "active_work_ppm": { "numerator": "accepted-active-mwork times 1000000", "denominator": "eligible-mwork", "rounding": "round-half-to-even", "quantile": "not-applicable" }, "independent_producer_count": { "numerator": "distinct beneficial owner count", "denominator": "one", "rounding": "exact", "quantile": "not-applicable" }, "home_hardware_reward_share_ppm": { "numerator": "household-beneficial-reward-satoshi times 1000000", "denominator": "all-matured-reward-satoshi", "rounding": "round-half-to-even", "quantile": "not-applicable" }, "beneficial_owner_hhi_ppm": { "numerator": "sum of squared owner share-ppm", "denominator": "1000000", "rounding": "round-half-to-even", "quantile": "not-applicable" }, "facility_hhi_ppm": { "numerator": "sum of squared facility share-ppm", "denominator": "1000000", "rounding": "round-half-to-even", "quantile": "not-applicable" }, "pool_hhi_ppm": { "numerator": "sum of squared pool share-ppm", "denominator": "1000000", "rounding": "round-half-to-even", "quantile": "not-applicable" }, "job_gateway_hhi_ppm": { "numerator": "sum of squared gateway share-ppm", "denominator": "1000000", "rounding": "round-half-to-even", "quantile": "not-applicable" }, "template_author_hhi_ppm": { "numerator": "sum of squared template-author share-ppm", "denominator": "1000000", "rounding": "round-half-to-even", "quantile": "not-applicable" }, "share_accountant_hhi_ppm": { "numerator": "sum of squared share-accountant share-ppm", "denominator": "1000000", "rounding": "round-half-to-even", "quantile": "not-applicable" }, "payout_custodian_hhi_ppm": { "numerator": "sum of squared payout-custodian share-ppm", "denominator": "1000000", "rounding": "round-half-to-even", "quantile": "not-applicable" }, "broadcaster_hhi_ppm": { "numerator": "sum of squared broadcaster share-ppm", "denominator": "1000000", "rounding": "round-half-to-even", "quantile": "not-applicable" }, "validating_upstream_hhi_ppm": { "numerator": "sum of squared validating-owner share-ppm", "denominator": "1000000", "rounding": "round-half-to-even", "quantile": "not-applicable" }, "independent_verifier_retention_ppm": { "numerator": "live-independent-validating-processes times 1000000", "denominator": "initial-independent-validating-processes", "rounding": "round-half-to-even", "quantile": "not-applicable" }, "economic_service_live_ppm": { "numerator": "live-service-capacity times 1000000", "denominator": "configured-service-capacity", "rounding": "round-half-to-even", "quantile": "not-applicable" }, "coalition_commitment_depth_ppm": { "numerator": "acknowledged-committed-active-mwork times 1000000", "denominator": "all-active-mwork", "rounding": "round-half-to-even", "quantile": "not-applicable" }, "recovery_time_seconds": { "numerator": "first-confirmed-threshold-time minus pulse-end-time", "denominator": "one", "rounding": "exact", "quantile": "not-applicable" } }, "materiality": { "thresholds": { "hhi-change-ppm": 25000, "liveness-change-ppm": 20000, "service-change-ppm": 50000, "verifier-change-ppm": 50000, "recovery-change-seconds": 604800, "producer-count-change": 2 }, "reversal_rule": "A contrast reverses only when its exact oriented empirical interval is beneficial beyond the strict deadband in a reference cell and harmful beyond the strict negative deadband in a declared axis, policy, cadence, resolution, initialization, entrant-budget, or continuation-path variant, or vice versa.", "countercase_rule": "The positive hypothesis fails in any world where the full bundle loses liveness, exceeds any control HHI threshold, loses verifier or service support, or misses either recovery deadline.", "classification_instability_rule": "Any regime class that changes across a required structural variant is unresolved for that claim." } }, "regimes": { "authority": "stipulated-range", "classes": [ "absorbing", "stationary", "metastable", "recurrent", "divergent", "path-dependent", "unresolved" ], "distributed_control_thresholds": { "chain_live_ppm_minimum": 950000, "block_gap_p95_seconds_maximum": 3600, "maximum_reorg_depth_blocks": 4, "independent_producer_count_minimum": 6, "each_control_hhi_ppm_maximum": 220000, "independent_verifier_retention_ppm_minimum": 600000, "economic_service_live_ppm_minimum": 500000, "coalition_commitment_depth_ppm_minimum": 420000 }, "recovery": { "deadline_seconds": 7776000, "confirmation_window_seconds": 2592000, "maximum_post-recovery-drift-ppm": 25000, "required_pulses": [ "accessible-hardware-supply-pulse", "top-beneficial-owner-removal-pulse" ] }, "path_rules": { "initializations-required": [ "balanced", "incumbent-heavy" ], "continuation-paths-required": [ "forward", "reverse" ], "recurrence-minimum-crossings": 3, "flat-window-confirmation-days": 90 } }, "stopping_rule": { "id": "paired-stability-v1", "authority": "stipulated-range", "eligible_stage_classes": [ "candidate-confirmatory", "candidate-boundary" ], "rule": "At or after the stage minimum, stop only at a listed replicate checkpoint when each primary metric's exact two-sided empirical central interval lies strictly beyond its oriented material deadband in the same direction at the two latest checkpoints, every regime classification is unchanged at those checkpoints, no required countercase or rare terminal state remains unresolved, and all resolution obligations are satisfied; otherwise continue to the next checkpoint and mark unresolved at the maximum.", "paired_difference_order": "treatment-minus-control", "empirical_interval": { "coverage_ppm": 750000, "lower_rank_rule": "floor-one-indexed", "upper_rank_rule": "ceiling-one-indexed", "lower_rank_numerator": 1, "lower_rank_denominator": 8, "upper_rank_numerator": 7, "upper_rank_denominator": 8, "clamp_ranks_to_observed_range": true, "sort_order": "ascending-integer" }, "primary_metrics": [ "chain_live_ppm", "beneficial_owner_hhi_ppm", "template_author_hhi_ppm", "payout_custodian_hhi_ppm", "validating_upstream_hhi_ppm", "independent_verifier_retention_ppm", "economic_service_live_ppm", "recovery_time_seconds" ], "metric_directions": { "chain_live_ppm": { "orientation": 1, "deadband": 20000 }, "beneficial_owner_hhi_ppm": { "orientation": -1, "deadband": 25000 }, "template_author_hhi_ppm": { "orientation": -1, "deadband": 25000 }, "payout_custodian_hhi_ppm": { "orientation": -1, "deadband": 25000 }, "validating_upstream_hhi_ppm": { "orientation": -1, "deadband": 25000 }, "independent_verifier_retention_ppm": { "orientation": 1, "deadband": 50000 }, "economic_service_live_ppm": { "orientation": 1, "deadband": 50000 }, "recovery_time_seconds": { "orientation": -1, "deadband": 604800 } }, "deadband_comparison": "strict", "unresolved_at_max": "No axis, cell, metric, or regime is silently dropped; unresolved precision is a candidate result." }, "validation_status": { "external_validation": "not-performed", "calibration": "not-calibrated", "retrospective_challenges": [ "BIP-110 observation locked at 2026-08-13T05:02:33Z and used only as a retrospective reproduction diagnostic" ], "held_out_challenges": [ "none-preregistered" ], "interpretation": "All social, economic, behavioral, topology, supply, and cost values are stipulated ranges. Replicate counts are precision devices, not real-world probabilities." }, "meta": { "notes": "Display labels, host facts, workers, throughput, wall time, and resource envelopes are metadata and cannot enter treatment policies, pair draws, world identities, stopping decisions, or scientific results.", "execution_envelope": { "scientific_identity": "excluded", "pilot_workers": 8, "maximum_workers": 72, "maximum_memory_bytes": 549755813888, "durable_checkpoint_requirement": "repository-owned prod1 state outside ephemeral directories", "abort_thresholds": { "required-site-service-state": "active", "load-average-one-minute": 160, "available-memory-bytes-minimum": 137438953472, "root-free-bytes-minimum": 536870912000, "host-temperature-celsius-maximum": 90 }, "worker_selection_rule": "Run a measured miniature at 8 workers, increase only while throughput improves and every abort margin holds, and never exceed 72 physical workers or 512 GiB." } } }