{
  "run_id": "cf-v1-85274a753ed3dde0",
  "schema_version": 1,
  "created_utc": "2026-08-13T06:22:49Z",
  "code_commit": {
    "release_commit": "recorded_by_enclosing_git_release",
    "research_sources_identified_by_hash": true,
    "note": "The enclosing Git release records the committed revision. Exact research source hashes are authoritative inside this receipt."
  },
  "source_hashes": {
    "research/model.py": "0497f5bde12178a2381e0482695ae7ce24609cda69bb47ac4754bb70ed239a7f",
    "research/experiments.py": "cb19793676fb15f1e388f3ad902426cd2cb520b8e5b178c25823692ef3e90be1",
    "research/parameters.json": "3fd114caf0df8cf125168a09d472679d9d95f4e55ac088f904a9f6b98f259052",
    "intention.md": "6770ccce3b4fd11a6da19f3453893a887f3e27bd7cd57123ccd6f8a1df29c92d",
    "design.md": "0eaa8e5ad5630937015233fa808f1f6fe503ecf34eb09d71874f46abc0539640",
    "docs/superpowers/specs/2026-08-12-counterfactual-hardfork-paper-design.md": "253d877ea7a5521f6bca4866cc173953aa4bcf4ab0a52124cf18661b79ea34fa"
  },
  "parameter_authority": {
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        "unit": "seconds",
        "authority": "protocol_defined",
        "evidence_locator": "Bitcoin's ten-minute target; external source validation remains open"
      },
      "epoch_window_blocks": {
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        "unit": "blocks",
        "authority": "protocol_defined",
        "evidence_locator": "Bitcoin's legacy retarget interval; external source validation remains open"
      },
      "epoch_adjustment_factor_bounds": {
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          4.0
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        "unit": "multiplier",
        "authority": "protocol_defined",
        "evidence_locator": "Bitcoin's legacy fourfold retarget bound; external source validation remains open"
      }
    },
    "stipulated": {
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          "authority": "stipulated_range",
          "meaning": "Persistent post-fork hash rate divided by the equilibrium pre-fork hash rate"
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            48.0
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          "meaning": "Rolling median expected interval must enter +/-20% of target"
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        "recovery_window_blocks": {
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          "authority": "stipulated_measurement_window"
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        "material_recovery_days": {
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              "local_template_value": 0.03
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            {
              "identifier": "miner-05",
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            {
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            {
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              "local_template_value": 0.018
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            {
              "identifier": "miner-08",
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            {
              "identifier": "miner-09",
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              "identifier": "miner-10",
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          "meaning": "Signed template-construction utility after workshare adoption: shared protocol plumbing can help, be neutral, or impose integration burden"
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          "authority": "stipulated_diagnostic_reference",
          "meaning": "Display reference only; not an independent materiality gate because v1 derives it algebraically from censoring hash share"
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        "exogenous_assumption": "Persistent from the first post-fork block"
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        "exogenous_assumption": "Persistent from the first post-fork block"
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      {
        "id": "persistent_hash_2x",
        "hash_rate_multiplier": 2.0,
        "exogenous_assumption": "Persistent from the first post-fork block"
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      {
        "id": "persistent_hash_4x",
        "hash_rate_multiplier": 4.0,
        "exogenous_assumption": "Persistent from the first post-fork block"
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      {
        "id": "persistent_hash_10x",
        "hash_rate_multiplier": 10.0,
        "exogenous_assumption": "Persistent from the first post-fork block"
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      {
        "id": "local_cost_0_latency_0.005",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.0,
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        "workshare_template_coupling": 0.0,
        "exogenous_assumption": "Synthetic cohort utilities and hash shares"
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      {
        "id": "local_cost_0_latency_0.015",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.0,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.015,
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        "workshare_template_coupling": -0.025,
        "exogenous_assumption": "Synthetic cohort utilities and hash shares"
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      {
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        "exogenous_assumption": "Synthetic cohort utilities and hash shares"
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      {
        "id": "local_cost_0.01_latency_0.005",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.01,
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        "workshare_template_coupling": 0.0,
        "exogenous_assumption": "Synthetic cohort utilities and hash shares"
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      {
        "id": "local_cost_0.01_latency_0.015",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.01,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.015,
        "workshare_operating_cost": 0.005,
        "workshare_template_coupling": -0.025,
        "exogenous_assumption": "Synthetic cohort utilities and hash shares"
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      {
        "id": "local_cost_0.02_latency_0",
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        "exogenous_assumption": "Synthetic cohort utilities and hash shares"
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      {
        "id": "local_cost_0.02_latency_0.005",
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        "workshare_operating_cost": 0.015,
        "workshare_template_coupling": 0.0,
        "exogenous_assumption": "Synthetic cohort utilities and hash shares"
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      {
        "id": "local_cost_0.02_latency_0.015",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.02,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.015,
        "workshare_operating_cost": 0.015,
        "workshare_template_coupling": -0.025,
        "exogenous_assumption": "Synthetic cohort utilities and hash shares"
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      {
        "id": "local_cost_0.03_latency_0",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.03,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.0,
        "workshare_operating_cost": 0.03,
        "workshare_template_coupling": 0.025,
        "exogenous_assumption": "Synthetic cohort utilities and hash shares"
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      {
        "id": "local_cost_0.03_latency_0.005",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.03,
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        "workshare_operating_cost": 0.03,
        "workshare_template_coupling": 0.0,
        "exogenous_assumption": "Synthetic cohort utilities and hash shares"
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      {
        "id": "local_cost_0.03_latency_0.015",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.03,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.015,
        "workshare_operating_cost": 0.03,
        "workshare_template_coupling": -0.025,
        "exogenous_assumption": "Synthetic cohort utilities and hash shares"
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      {
        "id": "local_cost_0.04_latency_0",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.04,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.0,
        "workshare_operating_cost": 0.05,
        "workshare_template_coupling": 0.025,
        "exogenous_assumption": "Synthetic cohort utilities and hash shares"
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      {
        "id": "local_cost_0.04_latency_0.005",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.04,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.005,
        "workshare_operating_cost": 0.05,
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        "exogenous_assumption": "Synthetic cohort utilities and hash shares"
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      {
        "id": "local_cost_0.04_latency_0.015",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.04,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.015,
        "workshare_operating_cost": 0.05,
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        "exogenous_assumption": "Synthetic cohort utilities and hash shares"
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      {
        "id": "local_cost_0.06_latency_0",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.06,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.0,
        "workshare_operating_cost": 0.08,
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        "exogenous_assumption": "Synthetic cohort utilities and hash shares"
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      {
        "id": "local_cost_0.06_latency_0.005",
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        "exogenous_assumption": "Synthetic cohort utilities and hash shares"
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        "id": "local_cost_0.06_latency_0.015",
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        "exogenous_assumption": "Synthetic cohort utilities and hash shares"
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      "randomness": "Poisson block-arrival draws",
      "common_random_numbers_across_interventions": true
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    "template_control": {
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      "randomness": "Independent synthetic cohort workshare-adoption and template-choice draws",
      "common_random_numbers_across_interventions": true
    }
  },
  "interventions": {
    "daa_recovery": [
      {
        "id": "epoch_sma_2016",
        "algorithm": "epoch_sma",
        "window_blocks": 2016,
        "half_life_seconds": null
      },
      {
        "id": "asert_2h",
        "algorithm": "asert",
        "window_blocks": null,
        "half_life_seconds": 7200.0
      },
      {
        "id": "asert_12h",
        "algorithm": "asert",
        "window_blocks": null,
        "half_life_seconds": 43200.0
      },
      {
        "id": "asert_48h",
        "algorithm": "asert",
        "window_blocks": null,
        "half_life_seconds": 172800.0
      }
    ],
    "template_control": [
      {
        "id": "pool_control",
        "local_template_option": false,
        "noncustodial_workshare_payout": false
      },
      {
        "id": "local_only",
        "local_template_option": true,
        "noncustodial_workshare_payout": false
      },
      {
        "id": "workshare_only",
        "local_template_option": false,
        "noncustodial_workshare_payout": true
      },
      {
        "id": "local_plus_workshare",
        "local_template_option": true,
        "noncustodial_workshare_payout": true
      }
    ]
  },
  "outcome_definitions": {
    "block_interval": "Exponential draw with mean 600 * difficulty / hash_rate.",
    "asert_difficulty": "anchor_difficulty * 2^((height_delta * target_spacing - elapsed) / half_life)",
    "epoch_sma_difficulty": "old_difficulty * clamp(expected_window_time / observed_window_time, 0.25, 4.0)",
    "recovery": "First block whose configured rolling window median expected interval lies within the configured tolerance of target.",
    "template_hhi": "Sum of squared template-author hash shares.",
    "payout_custody_hhi": "Sum of squared payout-custodian hash shares.",
    "workshare_adoption": "A cohort adopts an available option when a logistic payout-utility response exceeds its workshare draw.",
    "workshare_template_coupling": "After adoption, the world's signed integration benefit or burden is added to local-template utility before an independent template draw.",
    "sentinel_inclusion_probability_3_blocks": "1 - censoring_hash_share^3 under independent block winners."
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  "quantiles": {
    "probabilities": [
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      0.5,
      0.95
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    "method": "Hyndman-Fan type 7 linear interpolation",
    "pairing": "Paired differences are computed seed by seed before quantiles."
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  "material_thresholds": {
    "daa_recovery_days": 14.0,
    "template_hhi_reduction": 0.75,
    "local_template_hash_share": 0.5,
    "payout_custody_hhi_reduction": 0.2,
    "absolute_template_hhi_movement": 0.05
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  "diagnostic_references": {
    "sentinel_inclusion_probability_3_blocks": 0.5,
    "note": "Not an independent acceptance threshold in v1 because the sentinel metric is algebraically derived from censoring hash share."
  },
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        "template_concentration_pass": true,
        "joint_template_pass": true,
        "material_at_median": true,
        "median_local_template_hash_share": 0.98,
        "median_template_hhi_change": -0.8538000000000004,
        "median_sentinel_inclusion_probability_3_blocks": 0.999992
      },
      {
        "scenario_id": "local_cost_0_latency_0.005",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.0,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.005,
        "local_participation_pass": true,
        "template_concentration_pass": true,
        "joint_template_pass": true,
        "material_at_median": true,
        "median_local_template_hash_share": 0.95,
        "median_template_hhi_change": -0.8534000000000004,
        "median_sentinel_inclusion_probability_3_blocks": 0.999875
      },
      {
        "scenario_id": "local_cost_0_latency_0.015",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.0,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.015,
        "local_participation_pass": true,
        "template_concentration_pass": true,
        "joint_template_pass": true,
        "material_at_median": true,
        "median_local_template_hash_share": 0.86,
        "median_template_hhi_change": -0.8426000000000005,
        "median_sentinel_inclusion_probability_3_blocks": 0.997256
      },
      {
        "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.01_latency_0",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.01,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.0,
        "local_participation_pass": true,
        "template_concentration_pass": true,
        "joint_template_pass": true,
        "material_at_median": true,
        "median_local_template_hash_share": 0.91,
        "median_template_hhi_change": -0.8500000000000004,
        "median_sentinel_inclusion_probability_3_blocks": 0.999271
      },
      {
        "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.01_latency_0.005",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.01,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.005,
        "local_participation_pass": true,
        "template_concentration_pass": true,
        "joint_template_pass": true,
        "material_at_median": true,
        "median_local_template_hash_share": 0.86,
        "median_template_hhi_change": -0.8426000000000005,
        "median_sentinel_inclusion_probability_3_blocks": 0.997256
      },
      {
        "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.01_latency_0.015",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.01,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.015,
        "local_participation_pass": true,
        "template_concentration_pass": true,
        "joint_template_pass": true,
        "material_at_median": true,
        "median_local_template_hash_share": 0.6900000000000001,
        "median_template_hhi_change": -0.7861000000000005,
        "median_sentinel_inclusion_probability_3_blocks": 0.970209
      },
      {
        "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.02_latency_0",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.02,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.0,
        "local_participation_pass": true,
        "template_concentration_pass": true,
        "joint_template_pass": true,
        "material_at_median": true,
        "median_local_template_hash_share": 0.78,
        "median_template_hhi_change": -0.8197000000000004,
        "median_sentinel_inclusion_probability_3_blocks": 0.989352
      },
      {
        "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.02_latency_0.005",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.02,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.005,
        "local_participation_pass": true,
        "template_concentration_pass": true,
        "joint_template_pass": true,
        "material_at_median": true,
        "median_local_template_hash_share": 0.6900000000000001,
        "median_template_hhi_change": -0.7861000000000005,
        "median_sentinel_inclusion_probability_3_blocks": 0.970209
      },
      {
        "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.02_latency_0.015",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.02,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.015,
        "local_participation_pass": false,
        "template_concentration_pass": false,
        "joint_template_pass": false,
        "material_at_median": false,
        "median_local_template_hash_share": 0.46,
        "median_template_hhi_change": -0.6226000000000005,
        "median_sentinel_inclusion_probability_3_blocks": 0.842536
      },
      {
        "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.03_latency_0",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.03,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.0,
        "local_participation_pass": true,
        "template_concentration_pass": false,
        "joint_template_pass": false,
        "material_at_median": false,
        "median_local_template_hash_share": 0.5700000000000001,
        "median_template_hhi_change": -0.7160000000000004,
        "median_sentinel_inclusion_probability_3_blocks": 0.920493
      },
      {
        "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.03_latency_0.005",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.03,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.005,
        "local_participation_pass": false,
        "template_concentration_pass": false,
        "joint_template_pass": false,
        "material_at_median": false,
        "median_local_template_hash_share": 0.46,
        "median_template_hhi_change": -0.6226000000000005,
        "median_sentinel_inclusion_probability_3_blocks": 0.842536
      },
      {
        "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.03_latency_0.015",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.03,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.015,
        "local_participation_pass": false,
        "template_concentration_pass": false,
        "joint_template_pass": false,
        "material_at_median": false,
        "median_local_template_hash_share": 0.25,
        "median_template_hhi_change": -0.3750000000000001,
        "median_sentinel_inclusion_probability_3_blocks": 0.5781249999999996
      },
      {
        "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.04_latency_0",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.04,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.0,
        "local_participation_pass": false,
        "template_concentration_pass": false,
        "joint_template_pass": false,
        "material_at_median": false,
        "median_local_template_hash_share": 0.365,
        "median_template_hhi_change": -0.5352000000000003,
        "median_sentinel_inclusion_probability_3_blocks": 0.7439044999999999
      },
      {
        "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.04_latency_0.005",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.04,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.005,
        "local_participation_pass": false,
        "template_concentration_pass": false,
        "joint_template_pass": false,
        "material_at_median": false,
        "median_local_template_hash_share": 0.25,
        "median_template_hhi_change": -0.3750000000000001,
        "median_sentinel_inclusion_probability_3_blocks": 0.5781249999999996
      },
      {
        "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.04_latency_0.015",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.04,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.015,
        "local_participation_pass": false,
        "template_concentration_pass": false,
        "joint_template_pass": false,
        "material_at_median": false,
        "median_local_template_hash_share": 0.0,
        "median_template_hhi_change": 0.0,
        "median_sentinel_inclusion_probability_3_blocks": -6.661338147750939e-16
      },
      {
        "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.06_latency_0",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.06,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.0,
        "local_participation_pass": false,
        "template_concentration_pass": false,
        "joint_template_pass": false,
        "material_at_median": false,
        "median_local_template_hash_share": 0.0,
        "median_template_hhi_change": 0.0,
        "median_sentinel_inclusion_probability_3_blocks": -6.661338147750939e-16
      },
      {
        "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.06_latency_0.005",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.06,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.005,
        "local_participation_pass": false,
        "template_concentration_pass": false,
        "joint_template_pass": false,
        "material_at_median": false,
        "median_local_template_hash_share": 0.0,
        "median_template_hhi_change": 0.0,
        "median_sentinel_inclusion_probability_3_blocks": -6.661338147750939e-16
      },
      {
        "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.06_latency_0.015",
        "local_operating_cost": 0.06,
        "local_latency_penalty": 0.015,
        "local_participation_pass": false,
        "template_concentration_pass": false,
        "joint_template_pass": false,
        "material_at_median": false,
        "median_local_template_hash_share": 0.0,
        "median_template_hhi_change": 0.0,
        "median_sentinel_inclusion_probability_3_blocks": -6.661338147750939e-16
      }
    ]
  },
  "rank_reversals": [
    {
      "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.01_latency_0",
      "pair": [
        "local_only",
        "workshare_only"
      ],
      "lower_template_hhi": "local_only",
      "lower_payout_custody_hhi": "workshare_only",
      "interpretation": "The ordering reverses across control surfaces: neither intervention is a general decentralization winner."
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.01_latency_0.005",
      "pair": [
        "local_only",
        "workshare_only"
      ],
      "lower_template_hhi": "local_only",
      "lower_payout_custody_hhi": "workshare_only",
      "interpretation": "The ordering reverses across control surfaces: neither intervention is a general decentralization winner."
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.01_latency_0.015",
      "pair": [
        "local_only",
        "workshare_only"
      ],
      "lower_template_hhi": "local_only",
      "lower_payout_custody_hhi": "workshare_only",
      "interpretation": "The ordering reverses across control surfaces: neither intervention is a general decentralization winner."
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.02_latency_0",
      "pair": [
        "local_only",
        "workshare_only"
      ],
      "lower_template_hhi": "local_only",
      "lower_payout_custody_hhi": "workshare_only",
      "interpretation": "The ordering reverses across control surfaces: neither intervention is a general decentralization winner."
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.02_latency_0.005",
      "pair": [
        "local_only",
        "workshare_only"
      ],
      "lower_template_hhi": "local_only",
      "lower_payout_custody_hhi": "workshare_only",
      "interpretation": "The ordering reverses across control surfaces: neither intervention is a general decentralization winner."
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.02_latency_0.015",
      "pair": [
        "local_only",
        "workshare_only"
      ],
      "lower_template_hhi": "local_only",
      "lower_payout_custody_hhi": "workshare_only",
      "interpretation": "The ordering reverses across control surfaces: neither intervention is a general decentralization winner."
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.03_latency_0",
      "pair": [
        "local_only",
        "workshare_only"
      ],
      "lower_template_hhi": "local_only",
      "lower_payout_custody_hhi": "workshare_only",
      "interpretation": "The ordering reverses across control surfaces: neither intervention is a general decentralization winner."
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.03_latency_0.005",
      "pair": [
        "local_only",
        "workshare_only"
      ],
      "lower_template_hhi": "local_only",
      "lower_payout_custody_hhi": "workshare_only",
      "interpretation": "The ordering reverses across control surfaces: neither intervention is a general decentralization winner."
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.03_latency_0.015",
      "pair": [
        "local_only",
        "workshare_only"
      ],
      "lower_template_hhi": "local_only",
      "lower_payout_custody_hhi": "workshare_only",
      "interpretation": "The ordering reverses across control surfaces: neither intervention is a general decentralization winner."
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.04_latency_0",
      "pair": [
        "local_only",
        "workshare_only"
      ],
      "lower_template_hhi": "local_only",
      "lower_payout_custody_hhi": "workshare_only",
      "interpretation": "The ordering reverses across control surfaces: neither intervention is a general decentralization winner."
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.04_latency_0.005",
      "pair": [
        "local_only",
        "workshare_only"
      ],
      "lower_template_hhi": "local_only",
      "lower_payout_custody_hhi": "workshare_only",
      "interpretation": "The ordering reverses across control surfaces: neither intervention is a general decentralization winner."
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "local_cost_0_latency_0",
      "pair": [
        "local_only",
        "workshare_only"
      ],
      "lower_template_hhi": "local_only",
      "lower_payout_custody_hhi": "workshare_only",
      "interpretation": "The ordering reverses across control surfaces: neither intervention is a general decentralization winner."
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "local_cost_0_latency_0.005",
      "pair": [
        "local_only",
        "workshare_only"
      ],
      "lower_template_hhi": "local_only",
      "lower_payout_custody_hhi": "workshare_only",
      "interpretation": "The ordering reverses across control surfaces: neither intervention is a general decentralization winner."
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "local_cost_0_latency_0.015",
      "pair": [
        "local_only",
        "workshare_only"
      ],
      "lower_template_hhi": "local_only",
      "lower_payout_custody_hhi": "workshare_only",
      "interpretation": "The ordering reverses across control surfaces: neither intervention is a general decentralization winner."
    }
  ],
  "findings": [
    {
      "id": "F1-daa-transient-liveness",
      "status": "derived_counterfactual_finding",
      "claim": "Under persistent hash departure, the idealized ASERT interventions kept p95 recovery within the declared 14-day bound in 9 of 9 comparisons; the epoch control missed that bound in 3 of 3 departure worlds. When hash arrived instead, the 144-block progress ordering reversed in 9 of 9 comparisons.",
      "experiment": "daa-recovery",
      "acceptance_criterion": "All seeds recover and p95 recovery time is at or below the declared day bound. Progress rank is reported separately, seed-paired against the epoch control.",
      "material_threshold": {
        "p95_recovery_days": 14.0,
        "recovery_observed_fraction": 1.0
      },
      "reversal": "The receipt contains an actual directional reversal: ASERT advances 144-block progress under hash departure but delays it relative to the unchanged epoch control under the tested hash-arrival worlds.",
      "support": {
        "departure_threshold_pass_count": 9,
        "departure_comparison_count": 9,
        "epoch_departure_threshold_failure_count": 3,
        "epoch_departure_world_count": 3,
        "arrival_reversal_count": 9,
        "arrival_comparison_count": 9,
        "arrival_reversals": [
          {
            "scenario_id": "persistent_hash_2x",
            "intervention_id": "asert_2h",
            "paired_p50_progress_144_days": 0.4231873751735214
          },
          {
            "scenario_id": "persistent_hash_2x",
            "intervention_id": "asert_12h",
            "paired_p50_progress_144_days": 0.1588706944876894
          },
          {
            "scenario_id": "persistent_hash_2x",
            "intervention_id": "asert_48h",
            "paired_p50_progress_144_days": 0.042047272134575576
          },
          {
            "scenario_id": "persistent_hash_4x",
            "intervention_id": "asert_2h",
            "paired_p50_progress_144_days": 0.5828345413150842
          },
          {
            "scenario_id": "persistent_hash_4x",
            "intervention_id": "asert_12h",
            "paired_p50_progress_144_days": 0.14988258977764593
          },
          {
            "scenario_id": "persistent_hash_4x",
            "intervention_id": "asert_48h",
            "paired_p50_progress_144_days": 0.03356600743381128
          },
          {
            "scenario_id": "persistent_hash_10x",
            "intervention_id": "asert_2h",
            "paired_p50_progress_144_days": 0.6232410582422961
          },
          {
            "scenario_id": "persistent_hash_10x",
            "intervention_id": "asert_12h",
            "paired_p50_progress_144_days": 0.08747394069472281
          },
          {
            "scenario_id": "persistent_hash_10x",
            "intervention_id": "asert_48h",
            "paired_p50_progress_144_days": 0.016850361848987683
          }
        ]
      },
      "boundary": "This is an idealized DAA transient under a persistent exogenous hash shock; it is not evidence about adoption, price, or miner migration.",
      "narrow_conclusion": "DAA responsiveness changes short-run block progress after a stipulated hash departure; it does not determine whether a fork attracts hash."
    },
    {
      "id": "F2-template-control-is-conditional",
      "status": "derived_counterfactual_finding",
      "claim": "Optional local template construction crossed both independently declared median thresholds in 8 of 18 cost-latency worlds. The threshold results separated in 1 world and the joint test failed in 10 worlds.",
      "experiment": "template-control",
      "acceptance_criterion": "Median local-template hash share and seed-paired median template-HHI reduction each cross their own configured threshold.",
      "material_threshold": {
        "local_template_hash_share": 0.5,
        "template_hhi_reduction": 0.75
      },
      "reversal": "The same mechanism fails the joint test in the listed higher-burden worlds; one boundary world passes participation but not concentration.",
      "support": {
        "joint_pass_scenarios": [
          "local_cost_0_latency_0",
          "local_cost_0_latency_0.005",
          "local_cost_0_latency_0.015",
          "local_cost_0.01_latency_0",
          "local_cost_0.01_latency_0.005",
          "local_cost_0.01_latency_0.015",
          "local_cost_0.02_latency_0",
          "local_cost_0.02_latency_0.005"
        ],
        "separated_threshold_scenarios": [
          "local_cost_0.03_latency_0"
        ],
        "joint_fail_scenarios": [
          "local_cost_0.02_latency_0.015",
          "local_cost_0.03_latency_0",
          "local_cost_0.03_latency_0.005",
          "local_cost_0.03_latency_0.015",
          "local_cost_0.04_latency_0",
          "local_cost_0.04_latency_0.005",
          "local_cost_0.04_latency_0.015",
          "local_cost_0.06_latency_0",
          "local_cost_0.06_latency_0.005",
          "local_cost_0.06_latency_0.015"
        ],
        "sentinel_inclusion_role": "reported diagnostic, not a third gate, because v1 derives it algebraically from censoring hash share"
      },
      "boundary": "The result is conditional on synthetic miner utilities and cannot be called template sovereignty or an empirical adoption forecast.",
      "narrow_conclusion": "Optional local construction can distribute template authorship only when miners' stipulated local value clears operating and latency costs."
    },
    {
      "id": "F3-custody-is-not-template-control",
      "status": "derived_counterfactual_finding",
      "claim": "Across 18 local-template worlds, sampled workshare adoption materially improved payout custody in 12. Within those worlds, template concentration co-moved lower in 1 world, diverged upward in 4, and showed no material template movement in 7. The custody threshold itself failed in 6 worlds.",
      "experiment": "template-control",
      "acceptance_criterion": "Classify seed-paired median combined-minus-local-only changes using separate custody and template-HHI movement thresholds.",
      "material_threshold": {
        "payout_custody_hhi_reduction": 0.2,
        "absolute_template_hhi_movement": 0.05
      },
      "reversal": "The signed integration term produces both observed co-movement and observed divergence, while high workshare burden produces observed custody nonmateriality.",
      "support": {
        "scenario_count": 18,
        "material_custody_count": 12,
        "co_movement_count": 1,
        "divergence_count": 4,
        "custody_only_count": 7,
        "custody_nonmaterial_count": 6,
        "co_movement_cases": [
          {
            "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.03_latency_0",
            "local_operating_cost": 0.03,
            "local_latency_penalty": 0.0,
            "workshare_operating_cost": 0.03,
            "workshare_template_coupling": 0.025,
            "paired_median_payout_custody_hhi_change": -0.671,
            "paired_median_template_hhi_change": -0.08179999999999998
          }
        ],
        "divergence_cases": [
          {
            "scenario_id": "local_cost_0_latency_0.015",
            "local_operating_cost": 0.0,
            "local_latency_penalty": 0.015,
            "workshare_operating_cost": 0.0,
            "workshare_template_coupling": -0.025,
            "paired_median_payout_custody_hhi_change": -0.8538,
            "paired_median_template_hhi_change": 0.28600000000000014
          },
          {
            "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.01_latency_0.015",
            "local_operating_cost": 0.01,
            "local_latency_penalty": 0.015,
            "workshare_operating_cost": 0.005,
            "workshare_template_coupling": -0.025,
            "paired_median_payout_custody_hhi_change": -0.8538,
            "paired_median_template_hhi_change": 0.46710000000000024
          },
          {
            "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.02_latency_0.015",
            "local_operating_cost": 0.02,
            "local_latency_penalty": 0.015,
            "workshare_operating_cost": 0.015,
            "workshare_template_coupling": -0.025,
            "paired_median_payout_custody_hhi_change": -0.8538,
            "paired_median_template_hhi_change": 0.42800000000000016
          },
          {
            "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.03_latency_0.015",
            "local_operating_cost": 0.03,
            "local_latency_penalty": 0.015,
            "workshare_operating_cost": 0.03,
            "workshare_template_coupling": -0.025,
            "paired_median_payout_custody_hhi_change": -0.671,
            "paired_median_template_hhi_change": 0.06640000000000001
          }
        ],
        "custody_nonmaterial_cases": [
          {
            "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.04_latency_0",
            "local_operating_cost": 0.04,
            "local_latency_penalty": 0.0,
            "workshare_operating_cost": 0.05,
            "workshare_template_coupling": 0.025,
            "paired_median_payout_custody_hhi_change": -0.05820000000000003,
            "paired_median_template_hhi_change": 0.0
          },
          {
            "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.04_latency_0.005",
            "local_operating_cost": 0.04,
            "local_latency_penalty": 0.005,
            "workshare_operating_cost": 0.05,
            "workshare_template_coupling": 0.0,
            "paired_median_payout_custody_hhi_change": -0.05820000000000003,
            "paired_median_template_hhi_change": 0.0
          },
          {
            "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.04_latency_0.015",
            "local_operating_cost": 0.04,
            "local_latency_penalty": 0.015,
            "workshare_operating_cost": 0.05,
            "workshare_template_coupling": -0.025,
            "paired_median_payout_custody_hhi_change": -0.05820000000000003,
            "paired_median_template_hhi_change": 0.0
          },
          {
            "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.06_latency_0",
            "local_operating_cost": 0.06,
            "local_latency_penalty": 0.0,
            "workshare_operating_cost": 0.08,
            "workshare_template_coupling": 0.025,
            "paired_median_payout_custody_hhi_change": 0.0,
            "paired_median_template_hhi_change": 0.0
          },
          {
            "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.06_latency_0.005",
            "local_operating_cost": 0.06,
            "local_latency_penalty": 0.005,
            "workshare_operating_cost": 0.08,
            "workshare_template_coupling": 0.0,
            "paired_median_payout_custody_hhi_change": 0.0,
            "paired_median_template_hhi_change": 0.0
          },
          {
            "scenario_id": "local_cost_0.06_latency_0.015",
            "local_operating_cost": 0.06,
            "local_latency_penalty": 0.015,
            "workshare_operating_cost": 0.08,
            "workshare_template_coupling": -0.025,
            "paired_median_payout_custody_hhi_change": 0.0,
            "paired_median_template_hhi_change": 0.0
          }
        ],
        "cross_outcome_rank_reversal_count": 14
      },
      "boundary": "The signed integration term and workshare utility are stipulated, not calibrated; this does not validate a deployed workshare protocol.",
      "narrow_conclusion": "Custody and template authorship are distinct but potentially coupled control surfaces: shared plumbing can help, burden, or fail to attract miners."
    }
  ],
  "external_validation": {
    "status": "not_performed",
    "required_before_empirical_claim": [
      "Validate protocol constants against primary implementation sources",
      "Calibrate post-fork hash shocks against historical fork episodes",
      "Measure miner local-template costs, latency penalties, and choice behavior",
      "Validate payout-custody and template-author attribution against deployed systems"
    ]
  },
  "limitations": [
    "This is a conditional counterfactual model, not an adoption forecast.",
    "No parameter is calibrated to observed post-fork miner behavior in v1.",
    "The ASERT equation is idealized floating-point mechanics, not a claim of bit-exact node implementation equivalence.",
    "Hash-rate shocks are persistent and exogenous; miner migration, price, and feedback markets are outside v1.",
    "Template choice is a stipulated logistic utility response over synthetic cohorts.",
    "Workshare payout value, operating cost, and signed template-integration coupling are stipulated rather than calibrated.",
    "The sentinel experiment is a bounded censorship mechanism, not a general security proof."
  ]
}